Market Thoughts Archive

The world economy needs China’s children

The world economy needs China’s children

Posted on November 15, 2015
China has surprised the world when changed its population control policy and has decided to end its 35-year long one child per family rule. It might seem strange that China’s new policy made such a shock when we are in the middle of the third quarter earnings season, the oil price tumble and the European migration crisis but if we take a closer look at it, we understand that this decision project one of the most important problem of the upcoming years.

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TPP – The pros and cons of a treaty

TPP – The pros and cons of a treaty

Posted on October 25, 2015
After 5 years of negations, Japan, the United States of America and 10 other countries signed the treaty of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This is the largest economic (trade and investment) agreement of human history: the TPP – if local legislations ratify it– can affect 40 percent of the global GDP.

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Cash is a huge hit in 2015

Cash is a huge hit in 2015

Posted on October 11, 2015
Cash had a great year so far, might outperform both the stock and bond market, which has not happened since 1990. It is all down to the fact that liquidity has peaked and to the concern that Fed would raise rates.

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Is diesel technology a dead-end? The VW emission scandal may help innovation

Is diesel technology a dead-end? The VW emission scandal may help innovation

Posted on October 04, 2015
In the last two weeks Volkswagen’s clean diesel scandal made a huge mess on the market which can bring significant changes in the automotive industry in the near future. It is obvious that there are lots of skeletons in the cupboard, VW-group’s brands (like Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Seat) announce one after another which of their cars are involved in the scandal, and here we are talking about millions of vehicles. We can clearly see the problems on their stocks as well: in two weeks the company lost 35 percent of its stock value, which leads to a breath-taking 26 billion Euro loss. The scandal took its toll on other parties of the industry as well.

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The Fed did not raise interest rates

The Fed did not raise interest rates

Posted on September 18, 2015
As Innovative Securities predicted, the Fed did not hike the interest rates. The main reason for the delay was the low inflation. In our market analysis a week ago we also pointed out the importance of inflation in the decision making. There were some other reasons we believed would the delay of the hike.

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