Trump remained a promise - April 30, 2017

Trump remained a promise

Donald Trump’s first 14 weeks (100 days) as a president probably wasn’t as successful as he planned. We have studied the performance of the biggest US companies and found that Trump brought minor growth, missed to achieve great success and faces a hard future.

Wall Street reacted surprisingly well to Donald Trump’s triumph in November, stocks were bullish. But how did markets act during his first 100 days? To answer this question, we studied how S&P 500 performed during the first 14 weeks of Trump’s presidency compared to other presidents’ performance. New presidents often face hard times, Obama, for example, faced with the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and Bush struggled with 9/11 and economic depression in the first years of 2000’s.

Performance of S&P 500 during the first 14 weeks of US presidents

Analysing the last six presidents of the US, we found that Donald Trump’s performance is in the middle according to the performance of S&P 500. During his first 14 weeks, the index climbed 4.53% and it managed to achieve this without any big fall in the prices. What’s more, between October 2016 and March 2017 S&P 500 had a historical, 109-day long soar which hasn’t happened since 1995 and wasn’t affected neither by the elections nor by the inauguration, we may add.

But there are other interesting aspects, we believe. On the one hand, after Trump’s win the market expected the construction industry to have a great time as the president planned on rebuilding the infrastructure. Prices started to lift, too. On the other hand, many believed that IT companies may face a hard time as Trump attacked them during his campaign. Against all odds, big IT companies did better than construction, engineering and steel production companies.

Performance of IT and construction companies during the first 14 weeks of Trump

All this leads us to believe that although after the elections markets were positive, the first 100 days are a time of corrections. As Trump faced several difficulties – like strong fight against travel ban, “Trumpcare’s” failure and the postponing of ambitious tax reforms, as it was admitted by the US Treasury secretary to the Financial Times – markets became less optimistic.

In the future, we will have to see if he learns to strike deals or not and if he will be able to achieve his plans. Until then, he remains only a promise to many.

An edited version of this post appeared on Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch and Atlanta Business Chronicle. Find the articles under our Press page